Bracketology: March 10, 2020
Here is my take on what the selection committee will decide. A few high level differences I have with Joe Lunardi and others bracket:
1)The Big 12 has the top 2 seeds but the rest of the pack is fairly mediocre. I think a lot of bracketologists are over-seeding West Virginia because the committee had them at a 2 seed a month ago when they revealed their current bracket. At that time West Virginia was 18-4 with solid wins over Ohio St, Texas Tech, Texas, Wichita St, Rhode Island and Northern Iowa. Since then WVU is 3-6 with a bad loss in OT @TCU and a great win at home vs Baylor. The also lost to bubble teams Oklahoma (twice) and @Texas. Not saying these are bad losses but these are opportunities that they let slip away. Also, most of their quality wins early in the year are now bubble teams with the exception being Ohio St which I believe is a strong 5 seed. So their top 2 wins are OSU and Baylor at home which are good wins, but when you compare this to the teams I have on the 5-6 seed line, they fall short. Lunardi just put WVU on the 7 line as well, but I've seen WVU mainly in the 5-6 line in most brackets.
West Virginia's seed causes a miniature ripple effect on teams like Oklahoma (swept WVU), Texas, and Texas Tech who all beat WVU this year. I still have all of these teams in, but not nearly as safe as other bracketoligists. Beating WVU is the equivalent of a Big 10 team beating Penn St, Michigan, Illinois, or Rutgers. Considering the fact that WVU is the #3 team in the Big`12 and those Big Ten teams I just listed are 5-10 in conference, I'm going to rank a team like Indiana ahead of all these Big 12 teams because they have beaten 4 Big Ten teams on the 3-6 line and beat a #2 seed Florida State team out of conference.
2) I've seen Duke as low as a 2 seed in some brackets. I doubt the committee will put Duke as a 2 seed even if they win the ACC tournament. By winning the tournament that will only give them 2 more Q1 wins which will put them to 7. Yes they won @MSU and beat Kansas OOC which are probably the 2 best wins any team can claim OOC but they are 12-1 in Q3 games and only have 5 total Q1 wins. I have seen the committee punish teams for SOS in the past and I expect Duke to land on the 3-4 line unless almost all of the teams on the back half of the 2, 3, and 4 line get upset early in their conference tournaments.
7. Kentucky
8. Creighton
3 Seeds
9. Maryland
10. Villanova
11. Michigan State
12. Oregon
4 Seeds
13. Seton Hall
14. Duke
15. Louisville
16. Wisconsin
I think at the moment, Creighton, Kentucky, MSU, Oregon and Seton Hall could go in almost any order. After that,there is a big drop.
3) Dont count 16-15 Purdue out. If they make the semis in the BTT, they will be 18-16 with 6Q1 wins. If they reach the Championship they'll be 19-16 with 7Q1 wins which I think will put them in the field.
4) Richmond should make the field unless almost every bubble team makes a run in their conference tournament. Richmond is 3-4 in Q1 games and the committee has said before they look at what these mid majors do with the opportunities they have. I think Richmond needs to make the A10 Finals to feel safe, and if they do they will be an absolute lock. Northern Iowa is similar, although shakier. They are 1-1 in Q1 games and are sitting on the sidelines watching. 3 Q3 losses will hurt them as well, but if the bubble teams have 1st or 2nd round exits, look for UNI in the last 4 in category.
Alright, here are my latest projections of what the committee will decide:
1 Seeds 1. Kansas 2. Baylor 3. Gonzaga 4. Dayton
2 Seeds 5. San Diego State 6. Florida State 7. Kentucky 8. Creighton
3 Seeds 9. Maryland 10. Villanova 11. Michigan State 12. Oregon
4 Seeds 13. Seton Hall 14. Duke 15. Louisville 16. Wisconsin
5 Seeds 17. Ohio State 18. Auburn 19. Butler 20. Iowa
6 Seeds 21. Virginia 22. Michigan 23. BYU 24. Penn State
7 Seeds 25.West Virginia 26. Illinois 27. Houston 28. LSU
8 Seeds 29. Arizona 30. Rutgers 31. Saint Mary's 32. Florida
9 Seeds 33. Providence 34. Colorado 35. USC 36.Indiana
10 Seeds 37. Xavier 38. Richmond 39. UCLA 40. Marquette
11 Seeds 41. Utah State 42. East Tennessee State 43. Texas Tech 44. Northern Iowa 45. Texas
12 Seeds 46. Arizona St. 47. Oklahoma 48. Yale 49. Stephen F. Austin 50. Liberty
13 Seeds 51. Vermont 52. Akron 53. New Mexico State 54. North Texas
14 Seeds 55. Belmont 56. Bradley 57. Hofstra 58. Colgate
15 Seeds 59. Eastern Washington 60. UC Irvine 61. Northern Kentucky 62. Little Rock
16 Seeds 63. North Dakota State 64. Winthrop 65. Siena 66. Prairie View A&M 67. Saint Francis PA 68. NC Central
THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes: Richmond, UCLA, Marquette, Texas Tech
Last Four In: Northern Iowa, Texas, Arizona St, Oklahoma
First Four Out: NC State, Wichita State, Stanford, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: Purdue, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Memphis
1)The Big 12 has the top 2 seeds but the rest of the pack is fairly mediocre. I think a lot of bracketologists are over-seeding West Virginia because the committee had them at a 2 seed a month ago when they revealed their current bracket. At that time West Virginia was 18-4 with solid wins over Ohio St, Texas Tech, Texas, Wichita St, Rhode Island and Northern Iowa. Since then WVU is 3-6 with a bad loss in OT @TCU and a great win at home vs Baylor. The also lost to bubble teams Oklahoma (twice) and @Texas. Not saying these are bad losses but these are opportunities that they let slip away. Also, most of their quality wins early in the year are now bubble teams with the exception being Ohio St which I believe is a strong 5 seed. So their top 2 wins are OSU and Baylor at home which are good wins, but when you compare this to the teams I have on the 5-6 seed line, they fall short. Lunardi just put WVU on the 7 line as well, but I've seen WVU mainly in the 5-6 line in most brackets.
West Virginia's seed causes a miniature ripple effect on teams like Oklahoma (swept WVU), Texas, and Texas Tech who all beat WVU this year. I still have all of these teams in, but not nearly as safe as other bracketoligists. Beating WVU is the equivalent of a Big 10 team beating Penn St, Michigan, Illinois, or Rutgers. Considering the fact that WVU is the #3 team in the Big`12 and those Big Ten teams I just listed are 5-10 in conference, I'm going to rank a team like Indiana ahead of all these Big 12 teams because they have beaten 4 Big Ten teams on the 3-6 line and beat a #2 seed Florida State team out of conference.
2) I've seen Duke as low as a 2 seed in some brackets. I doubt the committee will put Duke as a 2 seed even if they win the ACC tournament. By winning the tournament that will only give them 2 more Q1 wins which will put them to 7. Yes they won @MSU and beat Kansas OOC which are probably the 2 best wins any team can claim OOC but they are 12-1 in Q3 games and only have 5 total Q1 wins. I have seen the committee punish teams for SOS in the past and I expect Duke to land on the 3-4 line unless almost all of the teams on the back half of the 2, 3, and 4 line get upset early in their conference tournaments.
7. Kentucky
8. Creighton
3 Seeds
9. Maryland
10. Villanova
11. Michigan State
12. Oregon
4 Seeds
13. Seton Hall
14. Duke
15. Louisville
16. Wisconsin
I think at the moment, Creighton, Kentucky, MSU, Oregon and Seton Hall could go in almost any order. After that,there is a big drop.
3) Dont count 16-15 Purdue out. If they make the semis in the BTT, they will be 18-16 with 6Q1 wins. If they reach the Championship they'll be 19-16 with 7Q1 wins which I think will put them in the field.
4) Richmond should make the field unless almost every bubble team makes a run in their conference tournament. Richmond is 3-4 in Q1 games and the committee has said before they look at what these mid majors do with the opportunities they have. I think Richmond needs to make the A10 Finals to feel safe, and if they do they will be an absolute lock. Northern Iowa is similar, although shakier. They are 1-1 in Q1 games and are sitting on the sidelines watching. 3 Q3 losses will hurt them as well, but if the bubble teams have 1st or 2nd round exits, look for UNI in the last 4 in category.
Alright, here are my latest projections of what the committee will decide:
1 Seeds 1. Kansas 2. Baylor 3. Gonzaga 4. Dayton
2 Seeds 5. San Diego State 6. Florida State 7. Kentucky 8. Creighton
3 Seeds 9. Maryland 10. Villanova 11. Michigan State 12. Oregon
4 Seeds 13. Seton Hall 14. Duke 15. Louisville 16. Wisconsin
5 Seeds 17. Ohio State 18. Auburn 19. Butler 20. Iowa
6 Seeds 21. Virginia 22. Michigan 23. BYU 24. Penn State
7 Seeds 25.West Virginia 26. Illinois 27. Houston 28. LSU
8 Seeds 29. Arizona 30. Rutgers 31. Saint Mary's 32. Florida
9 Seeds 33. Providence 34. Colorado 35. USC 36.Indiana
10 Seeds 37. Xavier 38. Richmond 39. UCLA 40. Marquette
11 Seeds 41. Utah State 42. East Tennessee State 43. Texas Tech 44. Northern Iowa 45. Texas
12 Seeds 46. Arizona St. 47. Oklahoma 48. Yale 49. Stephen F. Austin 50. Liberty
13 Seeds 51. Vermont 52. Akron 53. New Mexico State 54. North Texas
14 Seeds 55. Belmont 56. Bradley 57. Hofstra 58. Colgate
15 Seeds 59. Eastern Washington 60. UC Irvine 61. Northern Kentucky 62. Little Rock
16 Seeds 63. North Dakota State 64. Winthrop 65. Siena 66. Prairie View A&M 67. Saint Francis PA 68. NC Central
THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes: Richmond, UCLA, Marquette, Texas Tech
Last Four In: Northern Iowa, Texas, Arizona St, Oklahoma
First Four Out: NC State, Wichita State, Stanford, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: Purdue, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Memphis
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